OPERATIONAL DECISION SUPPORT - LNG OFFTAKE MODELLING

By knowing the relative risk that a scheduled loading will be delayed:

  1.  Lifters can deliberately target loading dates with low chance of being delayed or cancelled

  2. Lifters can quantitatively accept or reject requests to swap loading dates

The real world performance of an Annual Delivery Programme (ADP) or Specific Delivery Schedule (SDS) is subject to uncertain weather, gas field production, liquefaction plant reliability and downstream gas demand.


A commonly held misconception is that all loading dates have equal risk of delayed loading. However, because the above uncertainties have normal distributions, certain loading dates will have higher inherent risk of being delayed or cancelled.
 

HOW CAN A LIFTER QUANTIFY THE RISK OF DELAYED LOADING?
 

The answer is by repeatedly subjecting the P/ADP or SDS to the range of event uncertainties and identifying which loading dates are more frequently affected - and thereby dates to avoid. That is, using a probabilistic approach, a way of stress-testing an ADP.

 

INVESTMENT DECISION SUPPORT

Buyers source LNG supply from multiple assets around the world. This reduces source risk, but also introduces complexity when trying to optimise a portfolio of LNG supply.

 

An optimised LNG supply portfolio should have high shipping utilisation and low total operational risk resulting from weather, production reliability etc. The goal is to achieve a LNG delivery schedule that has minimal risk of late arrival at the receiving terminal. However, it is very difficult to model multiple production assets, regional weather uncertainty, production reliability, boil off and transport. Buyers need tools to provide quantitative data to support their decision.

Thankfully, Lanner LNG Logistics Simulator has in-built modules developed to solve the real-world questions of leading LNG participants.

These include:

  • How do we maximise fleet optimisation using existing ships

  • What impact will an additional ship have on reliability of delivery

  • Should we charter or buy a additional vessel

  • What is the value of boil-off losses for the total demand ADP

  • What is the aggregate operational risk of our global supply portfolio

Equity Lifting Solutions is a distribution and implementation partner for Lanner's world leading simulation engine 'LNG Logistics Simulator' in Australia and Singapore. LNG Logistics Simulator is used by the largest organisations in the world to simulate LNG logistics during a projects FEED/FID phase and to assess operational risk of ADP and SDS schedules during commercial operations phase.

For more information visit Lanner's LNG Logistics Simulator product page

LNG SUPPLY CHAIN MODELLING

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